Daily TA - AEX (update)

AEX
Written By Sofie Coudeville

Trend & Structure (SMA Analysis)

  • Primary trend:
    The price remains comfortably above the SMA200, keeping the primary long-term trend firmly bullish.

  • Intermediate trend:
    While the SMA55 (currently at 966.13) is still sloping upward, the price has recently dipped toward it. This move signals a weakening intermediate structure and suggests we are firmly in a corrective phase.

  • Short-term trend:
    The short-term bias is bearish. The AEX is printing lower highs, and today's price action shows a struggle to maintain footing above recent support levels.

Key takeaway:

“As long as price remains above the SMA200 and holds the SMA55 area, the macro bias stays bullish, but the immediate path of least resistance is sideways-to-down.”

Swing Sequencer

  • Current swing count: 4

  • Today’s signal: A bearish red candle following a series of downward counts.

  • Interpretation: The chart shows a continuation of the corrective phase. With a count of 4, the downswing is gaining maturity but has not yet shown signs of exhaustion. Price is losing upward momentum, aligning with a structured downswing sequence.

Key takeaway:

“A renewed downswing is underway; a reclaim of the prior support-turned-resistance near 990 is needed to invalidate this sequence.”

Momentum (RSI)

  • RSI value: 49.71

  • Zone: Neutral (below the 50-midpoint)

  • Behavior: Drifting lower toward the 40-level

Interpretations:

  • Momentum is fading as the RSI slips below the 50-centerline.

  • Sellers are currently in control of the short-term tape.

  • There is no oversold signal yet (RSI is far from 30), suggesting there is still "room" for the price to drop further before a technical bounce is due.

Key takeaway:

“RSI at 49.71 confirms neutral-to-bearish momentum with no signs of bullish divergence yet.”

Key Levels to Watch

  • Support:

    • S1: 979 / 975

    • S2: 966

  • Resistance:

    • R1: 990

    • R2: 1015

Key takeaway:

“A sustained break below 979 opens the door directly toward the SMA55 at 966.”

Outlook for the Next Trading Day

If the AEX can stabilize above 979, we may see a minor "dead cat bounce" or consolidation. However, the technical weight remains heavy.

  • Bearish Case: A close below 979 confirms a move toward the 966 (SMA55) zone. If momentum weakens further, a deeper correction toward 950 remains on the table.

  • Bullish Case: Buyers must reclaim 990 on volume to signal that this correction has bottomed and that the uptrend is ready to resume.

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Sofie Coudeville
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