Daily TA - MES1!

Trend & Structure (SMA Analysis)

• Primary trend:
  Price is currently below the SMA200, indicating pressure on the long‑term structure and suggesting that sellers still dominate the broader trend context.

• Intermediate trend:
  Price is also below the SMA55 after a decisive breakdown, keeping the medium‑term bias weak and showing the trend is not yet able to reclaim lost ground.

• Short-term trend:
  The latest candle is a modest green recovery candle following two strong red declines. Structure remains weak with lower highs and lower lows intact. No breakout signal is present.

Key takeaway:

“The overall trend remains under bearish control despite today’s small bounce.”

Swing Sequencer

• Current swing count: 6

• Today’s signal: green candle with red Swing Count

• Interpretation: The active swing is down, confirmed by the recent sequence of red candles. The current small green candle signals temporary relief, but momentum still leans toward continuation rather than reversal.

Key takeaway:

“Swing sentiment remains bearish, with only early signs of possible slowing.”

Momentum (RSI)

• RSI value: ~40

• Zone: bearish-weak

• Behavior: attempting to rise after a short dip into lower territory

Key takeaway:

“Momentum is weak but stabilizing, not yet showing a clear bullish shift.”

Key Levels to Watch

• Support:

  • S1: 6,854

  • S2: 6,800

• Resistance:

  • R1: 7,028

  • R2: 7,082

Key takeaway:

“The zone between 6,880–6,910 is the key resistance area that must be reclaimed to ease current pressure.”

Outlook for the Next Trading Day

As long as the MES1! trades below the SMA55 (≈6880), the short‑term outlook stays bearish.

Downside scenario:

• Continuation into 6720–6780 is likely if sellers maintain pressure.

Upside scenario:

• Bulls must reclaim 6880+ to neutralize the breakdown.

• Only above 6900 shifts momentum back toward balanced conditions.

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