Daily TA - AEX

Trend & Structure (SMA Analysis)

• Primary Trend: The primary trend remains firmly bullish as price action continues to trade well above the SMA 200 (currently at 936.82).

• Intermediate Trend: The SMA 55 (967.48) is trending upward and acting as a solid dynamic support level. The index has recently bounced off this zone, maintaining a healthy structural uptrend.

• Short-term Trend: After a brief period of consolidation and a retest of the SMA 55, the short-term structure is turning positive again, evidenced by the most recent green candle reclaiming the 990+ level.

Key takeaway:

“As long as price remains above the SMA 55 (967) and SMA 200 (936), the broader trend bias stays unequivocally bullish.”

Swing Sequencer

• Current Swing Count: 1 (New Bullish Cycle)

• Today’s Signal: Green candle with a Green Swing Count "1".

• Interpretation: Following a corrective sequence (red counts 1 through 4), we have just seen a trend reversal signal. The appearance of a new green "1" suggests that the corrective phase has ended and a new upward swing momentum is starting.

Key takeaway:

“A new bullish swing cycle has officially begun, suggesting a potential move back toward the recent highs.”

Momentum (RSI)

• RSI Value: 56.4

• Zone: Bullish / Neutral.

• Behavior: Curving upward from the 50-level.

• Interpretations:

  • Momentum is strengthening after a successful test of the RSI 50 midline.

  • The RSI has remained within the upper half of the "RSI Cloud," confirming buyers are back in control.

  • No overbought conditions yet (RSI is well below 70), leaving plenty of room for further upside.

Key takeaway:

“RSI at 56.4 confirms that the bullish momentum is accelerating without being overextended.”

Key Levels to Watch

• Support:

  • S1: 975 (Recent pivot low)

  • S2: 967 (SMA 55 zone)

• Resistance:

  • R1: 1010 (Recent swing high)

  • R2: 1020 (Major psychological barrier)

Key takeaway:

“The successful defense of the 975-980 zone has cleared the path for a retest of the 1010 resistance level.”

Outlook for the Next Trading Day

The AEX enters the next session with renewed bullish momentum. With a fresh Swing Count 1 and a rising RSI, the bias is to the upside.

• Bullish Scenario: A continuation above 1000 confirms the strength of this new cycle, targeting 1010.

• Bearish Scenario: Only a close back below the SMA 55 (967) would invalidate the current setup and open the door for a deeper correction toward 950.

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