Daily TA - S&P 500

Trend & Structure (SMA Analysis)

• Primary trend:
  The index trades far above the rising SMA200, keeping the long‑term trend structurally bullish despite ongoing pressure.

• Intermediate trend:
  Price cleanly lost the SMA55 today, breaking below it with a decisive red candle.
  This signals a shift to medium‑term weakness and confirms that sellers currently dominate the structure.

• Short-term trend:
  The S&P is now forming lower highs and lower lows, with the most recent candle extending the downswing.
  We’re clearly in a corrective phase inside a long‑term uptrend.

Key takeaway:

“As long as price remains above the SMA 55 and 200, the trend bias stays bullish.”

Swing Sequencer

• Current swing count: 5

• Today’s signal: red candle with red Swing Count

• Interpretation: Today's strong red continuation candle confirms the active downswing.
  The swing structure shows:

  • clear downward follow‑through

  • no sign of an impending upswing

  • momentum aligned with the bearish swing

Key takeaway:

“The downswing remains intact. Bulls need a strong recovery above the SMA55 to neutralize this swing.”

Momentum (RSI)

• RSI value: 38.93

• Zone: Neutral-to-weak (neither oversold nor strong)

• Behavior: Sliding downward with no divergence, confirming bearish momentum

Interpretations:

• weakening momentum

• sellers in control

• no oversold signal yet

• room for further downside

• no bullish divergence present

Key takeaway:

“RSI confirms downside momentum with room for continuation — no exhaustion signals yet.”

Key Levels to Watch

• Support:

  • S1: 6,780

  • S2: 6,720-6,750

• Resistance:

  • R1: 6,860

  • R2: 6,900

Key takeaway:

“Below S1, pressure widens quickly toward S2. Bulls must reclaim R1 to stabilize, and R2 to regain meaningful traction.”

Outlook for the Next Trading Day

As long as the S&P trades below the SMA55 (≈6850), the short‑term outlook stays bearish.

Downside scenario:

• Continuation into 6750–6720 is likely if sellers maintain pressure.

Upside scenario:

• Bulls must reclaim 6855+ to neutralize the breakdown.

• Only above 6900 shifts momentum back toward balanced conditions.

Support My Work

If you appreciate these clear, structured daily analyses, you can support the work via the donation page. Your contribution keeps Cephu independent and ad‑free.